Stochastic fluctuations in epidemics on networks

Stochastic fluctuations in epidemics on networks.

The effects of demographic stochasticity on the long-term behaviour of endemic infectious diseases have been considered for long as a necessary addition to an underlying deterministic theory. The latter would explain the regular behaviour of recurrent epidemics and the former the superimposed noise of observed incidence patterns. Recently, a stochastic theory based on a mechanism of resonance w...

Dynamics of stochastic epidemics on heterogeneous networks.

Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a heterogeneous network. Using this, we consider analytically the early asymptotic exponential growth phase of such epidemics, showing how the higher order moments of t...

Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks.

Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of man...

Stochastic amplification in epidemics.

The role of stochasticity and its interplay with nonlinearity are central current issues in studies of the complex population patterns observed in nature, including the pronounced oscillations of wildlife and infectious diseases. The dynamics of childhood diseases have provided influential case studies to develop and test mathematical models with practical application to epidemiology, but are a...

in stochastic SIS epidemics